After Johannnesburg

Towards the water policies for the 21st century

Background

During the 20th century, the world population has tripled while world demand for water has increased seven-fold. The signs of a looming water crisis are evident. Since water is essential to every aspect of life, this crisis affects everything - from health to human rights, the environment to the economy, poverty to politics, culture and civilization to cooperation and conflict. Just as water defies political boundaries, the crisis is also well beyond the scope of any individual country or sector and cannot be dealt with in isolation. The need for integrated, cooperative solutions is particularly urgent in the 261 river basins which are shared by two or more sovereign states. These basins cover nearly half of the world territory and provide home for almost 50% of the world population.

The Hague Ministerial Declaration, signed at the 2nd WWF in March 2000, identified seven key challenges for achieving water security (see Table 1). One of these challenges "Water sharing" gives the proper context for the project "From Potential Conflict to Co-operation Potential: Water for Peace".

UNESCO and GCI are contributing to this international initiative by jointly examining the potential for shared water resources and how to become a catalyst for regional peace and development through dialogue, cooperation and participative management of river basins. An increasing number of states are experiencing permanent water stress, yet in most cases, mechanisms and institutions to manage conflicts over water resources are either absent or inadequate. Competition over this precious resource could increasingly become a source of tension - and even conflict - between states and water use sectors. But history has often shown that the vital nature of freshwater can also be a powerful incentive for cooperation; it can impel stakeholders to reconcile their diverging views, rather than allow opposing interests to escalate into harmful confrontations, which could jeopardize water supplies, for all parties involved in a dispute.

A team of scientific researchers from the Department of Geosciences at Oregon State University, led by Prof. Aaron T. Wolf has been conducting an interesting work confirming this aspect of the resource as a unifier. They have compiled a systematic database for water conflict/cooperation reported during the last 50 years in the international media. Of the 1,831 events - 507 conflictive, 1,228 cooperative, and 96 neutral or non-significant have been identified. To define the intensity of the events a scale going from -7, the most conflictive (war), through 0 (neutral events), and up to +7, the most cooperative (voluntary merging of countries) were used. The events, measured on this scale revealed the following:

No events were observed on the extremes;

Most interactions are cooperative;

Most interactions are mild;

Water acts as an irritant;

Water acts as unifier;

Overall, the major water-related issues likely to lead towards conflicts are quantity and infrastructure related;

Nations cooperate over a wide variety of issues.

UNESCO has launched the project "From Potential Conflict to Co-operation Potential" (PC -> CP) to assess the available material for the prevention and the resolution of water conflicts, as well as to develop decision-making and conflict prevention tools for the future. The "Water for Peace" project initiated by Green Cross International - developed with the input of civil society in several international basins - aims to enhance the awareness and participation of local authorities and the public in water conflict resolution and integrated management, through facilitating more effective dialogue between all stakeholders.

The joint PC -> CP: Water for Peace project will address the obstacles, identify the incentives and promote the means to achieving the integrated, equitable and sustainable management needed to make international watercourses natural thoroughfares for stability and sustainable development across the world. The following summary refers to the PC -> CP component.

Scope of PC -> CP

PC -> CP addresses specifically the challenge of shared water resources primarily from the point of view of Governments and intergovernmental organization. All PC -> CP efforts were conceived with the idea that, although shared water resources can be a source of conflict, their joint management should be strengthened and facilitated as a means of cooperation between various water users. Thus PC -> CP aims to demonstrate that a situation with undeniable potential for conflict can be transformed into a situation where cooperation potential can emerge. PC -> CP’s thematic focus is on this very transition - from PC to CP.

The goal of PC -> CP, in accordance with the mandate of WWAP, is to render services to the Member States and to foster cooperation between Nations. It is also guided by UNESCO's paramount mandate: to nurture the idea of peace in human minds. In its first phase (2001-2003), PC -> CP gives priority to water conflicts, which are international in nature and may cause tension or even open conflict between sovereign states.

Target Groups

PC -> CP’s role is to help water resources management authorities to tip the balance in favor of cooperation potential away from potential conflict. The priority target groups of PC -> CP are therefore institutions and individuals that manage shared water resources. These include Governments, to which the WWAP is essentially addressed, then donor and funding agencies, which need information on actual or potential water conflicts.

Objectives of PC -> CP

The purpose of PC -> CP is to promote water security through cooperative management of shared water resources. PC -> CP aims to foster cooperation between stakeholders in the management of shared water resources and mitigate the risk that potential conflicts turn into real ones. It will help the parties involved in potential water conflicts to negotiate the way towards cooperation. PC -> CP’s overall purpose can be reached through the achievement of these following five operational objectives:

Defining and surveying conflicts in water resources management;

Developing indicators to monitor cooperation in large basins;

Developing educational material targeting all respective levels;

Providing decision-support tools, by indicating how best to transform PC into CP;

Disseminating results and good practices.

PC -> CP activities will be guided by these operational objectives and will develop along three major tracks:

A disciplinary track, which will investigate the professional approaches as well as the scientific background to conflict management, water-related negotiations and cooperation building techniques and methods;

A case study track, which will survey and consider a selection of real-world cases of water conflicts and cooperation, in order to draw lessons on both the root causes of such conflicts as well as the successful cooperation in shared water resources management;

An educational track, which will concentrate on how to develop skills for successful management of shared resources, at all levels - from professionals to decision makers. This track will also focus on public information needs.

Disciplinary track
The disciplinary analysis will develop along the following four main axes: History and future; Law; Negotiations, facilitation, mediation; Systems analysis techniques.
Outputs – Think pieces or essays on the history and future of shared water resources; A state of the art report on the role of law and institutions in the transition from PC to CP; and another one on the legal protection of water facilities during time of war; A report on the negotiations techniques; A report on the role of NGOs and the civil society in negotiations; State-of-the-art report on the negotiation process in the international context; A report on systems analytical techniques and their role in cooperative water resources management; Critical analysis of management models of shared water resources.

Case study track
The case study track analyses "real-world" cases in an interdisciplinary context. In line with the philosophy of PC -> CP, the case studies selected are examples of good practices, and rely on existing and evolving institutional mechanisms which facilitate cooperation. The project’s objective is not to achieve a full geographical coverage but to prove as much as possible that the transition from PC to CP is possible.
Outputs – The following in-depth case studies are envisaged for the 2001-2003 period: Rhine River basin; Aral Sea basin; Incomati River basin; Mekong River basin; Jordan River basin; Danube River basin; Columbia River basin; Nile River basin.In addition to an overview of several other cases.

Educational track
The most valuable contribution to future education in water conflict management will come from the other two tracks of PC -> CP: the generic research through the disciplinary track and the empirical material elaborated through the case study track. Therefore, the main educational use of PC -> CP outputs will follow after the current phase of the project.
The educational track will develop an interface with the present and future users of PC -> CP outputs, generate a vehicle for self-instruction of actual and future decision makers, experts, and trainers. It will produce educational tools and the experience gained will be put at the disposal of educational institutions with an interest in water management.
Outputs - The outputs of the educational track in the First Phase are the following: Design one postgraduate course module on Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy and Cooperation in International Water Resources. On the basis of the above-mentioned module, a short (5 days) course specifically targeting highly placed decision-makers and diplomats will be developed and tested: workshops, role-plays, simulation games, meta-plan sessions, lectures, small group works and exercises.

International symposia and conferences are among the most efficient means to disseminate the results and ideas of a project. In November 2002 an international conference on issues, concepts and challenges in the area of international water resources management will take place in Delft in order to prepare the presentation of the results of the first phase of PC -> CP in Kyoto at the 3rd WWF. In the spirit of the partnership of Johannesburg, UNESCO suggests a partnership with the new International Basin Network of INBO to develop regular water cooperation assessment of river basins thus contributing to implementation and monitoring of shared water resources in response to the water policy imperative identified at the 2nd WWF. .